Hostile attitudes to migrants harden by short-term exposure - CSH

Hostile attitudes to migrants harden by short-term exposure


Mar 5, 2021

Short-term, transient exposure to migrants and refugees can inflame pre-existing, hostile, anti-immigrant attitudes in some places, which in turn can affect voting outcomes, according to new analysis.

 

 

The researchers, led by CSH’s Johannes Wachs examined evidence from Hungary, which held a national referendum in 2016 on European migrant quotas, shortly after the European 2015 refugee crisis, and a parliamentary election in 2018.

 

“Hungary was an interesting case to study because of its unique experience during the refugee crisis in 2015,” says Johannes. Within some months, more than 1 million people crossed the Mediterranean Sea to escape conflict and violence in Africa and the Middle East. On their way to Western Europe, many of these refugees walked through Hungary on various routes, quickly responding to changes in border openings and transit availability.

 

Unlike in other countries, where refugees were settled in camps and locals could get to know individuals over time, the encounters with large groups of migrants were rather short-lived. Johannes and his colleagues wanted to know if this fact influenced the voting outcome in Hungary where anti-immigration attitudes were stoked by both the right-wing Fidesz government in power at the time of the refugee crisis, as well as by the far-right Jobbik opposition party.

 

Movement and exposure data

 

For their paper that was recently published in the Springer journal Political Behavior, the authors used a number of research methods:

 

They collected data on the movement of refugees through Hungary from the Hungarian state newswire MTI, then-independent online news outlet Index, and from LiveUAMap (Live Universal Awareness Map), an NGO-run crowdsourced real-time social media aggregator with geographic information. “MTI and Index are influenced by different political ideologies,” says Johannes. “By using them both, we ensured a broad coverage of the events.”

 

They also used data available from a third-party survey to consider the effects of exposure to the refugees at the individual level.

 

The researchers then plotted the refugee movements, including several long “marches” on foot.

 

“We found that contact with refugees was more likely to harden anti-refugee attitudes among individuals describing themselves as right wing, rather than for individuals who did not,” says Johannes. “According to our research, the exposure to refugees did not appear to change the underlying attitude.”

 

They also found that voters in settlements through which the refugees travelled were more likely to vote against refugee resettlement quotas in a subsequent national referendum on the topic: In the 2018 parliamentary election, people in settlements exposed to refugees were more likely to vote for Jobbik than Fidesz, despite Fidesz having a similar, anti-refugee stance. While Fidesz still won a convincing majority, the move to Jobbik was significant in these specific towns. The researchers say that these results support the idea that voters seek to “punish” the incumbent party when they do not need to compromise their own political opinions.

 

“The difference between the electoral results of Fidesz and Jobbik suggests that anti-refugee mobilization by governing parties may rather strengthen far-right opposition parties in exposed settlements. Some share of right-wing voters directly exposed to the crisis could not forgive even the quite credibly anti-refugee ruling government in Hungary. There are, it turns out, perhaps limits to exploiting a crisis, especially from a position of power,” the researchers write.

 

Other scientists have suggested that left wing voters not opposed to immigration become even more tolerant with exposure to migrants. “Our results suggest a shift within the right, rather than an expansion of right-wing views,” says Johannes.

 

“We can expect more refugees and irregular migration in the future. Therefore, it is valuable to understand the root causes of frictions between refugees and locals,” he adds. “From our paper one can learn that one-off contacts and a chaotic experience do not engender warm feelings towards refugees.”

 

The scientists now would like to look at further evidence from other countries to arrive at a better holistic understanding of how locals react to refugees.

 

 

The research paper, entitled “No Country for Asylum Seekers? How Short-Term Exposure to Refugees Influences Attitudes and Voting Behavior in Hungary,” was published in the Springer journal Political Behavior on 9 February 2021.

 


Press

Corona-Modellprojekte: Ist der Tübinger Weg eine Sackgasse?


Augsburger Allgemeine, Apr 7, 2021

Press

Lockdown in Ostösterreich verlängert


Ö2 | Niederösterreich | Journal, Apr 7, 2021

Press

Handel tobt: Lockdown “kann nicht richtiger Weg sein”


Heute, Apr 6, 2021

Press

Lässt sich die dritte Welle brechen?


Der Standard, Apr 6, 2021

News

Apr 1, 2021

CSH Winter Lecture Series: from the Alps to Zoom

Publication

J. Korbel, D. Wolpert

Stochastic thermodynamics and fluctuation theorems for non-linear systems

New Journal of Physics 23 (2021) 033049

News

Mar 17, 2021

The City Formula or: It’s all about geometry!

Publication

C. Molinero, S. Thurner

How the geometry of cities determines urban scaling laws

Journal of the Royal Society Interface 18 (176) (2021)

News

Mar 12, 2021

Videos out!!! Watch the Covid-19 Measures Tracker Conference

Publication

E. Vasilyaeva, et al.

Multilayer representation of collaboration networks with higher-order interactions

Scientific Reports 11 (2021) 5666

Publication

F. Schweitzer, G. Casiraghi, M. Tomasello, D. Garcia

Fragile, yet resilient: Adaptive decline in a collaboration network of firms

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 7 (2021) 634006

News

Mar 5, 2021

Hostile attitudes to migrants harden by short-term exposure

Press

Corona-Modellprojekte: Ist der Tübinger Weg eine Sackgasse?


Augsburger Allgemeine, Apr 7, 2021

Press

Lockdown in Ostösterreich verlängert


Ö2 | Niederösterreich | Journal, Apr 7, 2021

Press

Handel tobt: Lockdown “kann nicht richtiger Weg sein”


Heute, Apr 6, 2021

Press

Lässt sich die dritte Welle brechen?


Der Standard, Apr 6, 2021

News

Apr 1, 2021

CSH Winter Lecture Series: from the Alps to Zoom

Publication

J. Korbel, D. Wolpert

Stochastic thermodynamics and fluctuation theorems for non-linear systems

New Journal of Physics 23 (2021) 033049

News

Mar 17, 2021

The City Formula or: It’s all about geometry!

Publication

C. Molinero, S. Thurner

How the geometry of cities determines urban scaling laws

Journal of the Royal Society Interface 18 (176) (2021)

News

Mar 12, 2021

Videos out!!! Watch the Covid-19 Measures Tracker Conference

Publication

E. Vasilyaeva, et al.

Multilayer representation of collaboration networks with higher-order interactions

Scientific Reports 11 (2021) 5666

Publication

F. Schweitzer, G. Casiraghi, M. Tomasello, D. Garcia

Fragile, yet resilient: Adaptive decline in a collaboration network of firms

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 7 (2021) 634006

News

Mar 5, 2021

Hostile attitudes to migrants harden by short-term exposure

News

Apr 1, 2021

CSH Winter Lecture Series: from the Alps to Zoom

News

Mar 17, 2021

The City Formula or: It’s all about geometry!

News

Mar 12, 2021

Videos out!!! Watch the Covid-19 Measures Tracker Conference

News

Mar 5, 2021

Hostile attitudes to migrants harden by short-term exposure

News

Feb 18, 2021

(Re)Shaping cities to combat inequality

News

Jan 26, 2021

Different Lockdowns, different mobility in Austria

News

Jan 18, 2021

Stefan Thurner: “It needs digitization to fight a pandemic”

News

Jan 11, 2021

Central European University: the newest Hub member

News

Dec 19, 2020

Call for Pan-European Corona strategy

News

Dec 9, 2020

Corona and subway use in Vienna

News

Dec 3, 2020

Cryptofinance: our new research field!

News

Dec 1, 2020

What is a Complex System? A new book explains

Press

Corona-Modellprojekte: Ist der Tübinger Weg eine Sackgasse?


Augsburger Allgemeine, Apr 7, 2021

Press

Lockdown in Ostösterreich verlängert


Ö2 | Niederösterreich | Journal, Apr 7, 2021

Press

Handel tobt: Lockdown “kann nicht richtiger Weg sein”


Heute, Apr 6, 2021

Press

Lässt sich die dritte Welle brechen?


Der Standard, Apr 6, 2021

Press

Forscher zu Entwicklung Cov-Zahlen


ORF 2 | Wien heute, Apr 6, 2021

Press

Ostösterreich bleibt (länger) zu Hause


Wiener Zeitung, Apr 6, 2021

Press

Talk mit Christoph Varga


ORF 2 | Guten Morgen Österreich, Apr 6, 2021

Press

Systematisch erschöpft


Wiener Zeitung, Apr 5, 2021

Press

Drei Thesen, warum Tirol wie ein Corona-Dauer-Hotspot wirkt


Die Presse, Apr 3, 2021

Press

Covid-19: Testes rápidos em massa não são “carta branca para a liberdade” [Portuguese]


Publico, Apr 3, 2021

Press

Studie zeigt: „Osterruhe“ hilft uns aus der Krise


Kronen Zeitung, Apr 3, 2021

Press

Ampel-Kommission: Stufenplan für die Länder zur Lockdown-Vermeidung


OÖ Nachrichten, Apr 3, 2021

Publication

J. Korbel, D. Wolpert

Stochastic thermodynamics and fluctuation theorems for non-linear systems

New Journal of Physics 23 (2021) 033049

Publication

C. Molinero, S. Thurner

How the geometry of cities determines urban scaling laws

Journal of the Royal Society Interface 18 (176) (2021)

Publication

E. Vasilyaeva, et al.

Multilayer representation of collaboration networks with higher-order interactions

Scientific Reports 11 (2021) 5666

Publication

F. Schweitzer, G. Casiraghi, M. Tomasello, D. Garcia

Fragile, yet resilient: Adaptive decline in a collaboration network of firms

Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 7 (2021) 634006

Publication

F. Parastesh, et al.

Chimeras

Physics Reports 898 (2021) 1–114

Publication

A. Pluchino, et al.

A novel methodology for epidemic risk assessment of COVID-19 outbreak

Scientific Reports 11 (2021) 5304

Publication

S. Thurner, P. Klimek, R. Hanel

Reply to Kuśmierz and Toyoizumi: A network-based explanation of why most COVID-19 infection curves are linear

PNAS 118 (10) (2021) e2100906118

Publication

E. Filtz, S. Kirrane, A. Polleres

The linked legal data landscape: linking legal data across different countries

Artificial Intelligence and Law (2021)

Publication

J. Korbel, S. Lindner, R. Hanel, S. Thurner

Thermodynamics of structure-forming systems

Nature Communications 12 (2021) 1127

Publication

G. Tóth, J. Wachs, et al.

Inequality is rising where social network segregation interacts with urban topology

Nature Communications 12 (2021) 1143

Publication

E. Ubaldi, R. Burioni, V. Loreto, F. Tria

Emergence and evolution of social networks through exploration of the adjacent possible space

Communication Physics 4 (2021) 28

Publication

M. Leutner, et al.

Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and antidepressant medication are overrepresented in high-dose Statin treatment

Frontiers in Medicine 8 (2021) 608083