Economic costs of the coronavirus - CSH

Economic costs of the coronavirus


Feb 12, 2020

CSH Policy Brief 1/2020

 

Costs of the coronavirus epidemic 2020 for the Austrian economy

 

The 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak will cost China up to 300 billion euros. For Austria the losses amount to 1.1 billion euros. The manufacturing sector is particularly affected. 

 

Background

 

Since December 2019, the world has been experiencing a rapid spread of the coronavirus 2019-nCoV from the Chinese city of Wuhan. A number of drastic measures have been and are being taken in China and other countries to contain this epidemic, including the quarantine of entire cities or the construction of two new hospitals in Wuhan. Economic activities in the areas of trade, gastronomy or tourism are coming to a standstill. The impact of these measures on other countries and industries is largely uncertain at present.

 

The CSH innovation

 

In studies published so far, the economic consequences of the epidemic are mainly established by comparisons with the SARS epidemic in 2003. However, the size of the Chinese economy has since increased by a factor of 6, and consumption by the Chinese population has become a major driver of the global economy. Comparisons with 2003 are therefore of little use.

 

The economic impact of 2019-nCoV must be considered in the light of the current international trade linkages between China and the rest of the world. Using a method developed at the CSH by Peter Klimek et al. (2019), it is possible to calculate direct and indirect effects of economic shocks. Thus, the direct economic consequences of the SARS epidemic can be applied to current economic structures and linkages to provide a much more accurate picture of the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak on Europe.

 

Results in detail

 

As a result of reductions in Chinese trade and tourism, Austria will suffer significant declines in demand. The CSH model calculates that China’s trade and tourism will decline by about 90 billion euros. Due to interdependencies with other sectors, the losses will increase to about 300 billion euros (approx. 2.5 per cent of Chinese GDP).

 

International trade links will lead to losses for Austria of about 1.1 billion euros, especially in the manufacturing sectors. Companies producing electronic and optical products, machines and machine parts, motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts will have to prepare for declines.

 

Conclusion of the CSH

 

The results of the CSH model show that Austria can expect a significant drop in exports, if no countermeasures are taken.

 

 

CSH Scientists Tobias Reisch, Peter Klimek, Stefan Thurner

 

 

Literature

 

P. Klimek, S. Poledna, S. Thurner, Quantifying economic resilience from input–output susceptibility to improve predictions of economic growth and recovery, Nature communications 10 1677 (2019) 1–9

 

 

About the CSH

 

The Complexity Science Hub Vienna was founded with the aim of using Big Data for the benefit of society.

 

Among other things, the CSH systematically and strategically prepares large data sets so that they can be used in agent-based models. These simulations allow the effects of decisions in complex situations to be tested in advance and systematically assessed. Thus, the CSH provides fact-based foundations for an evidence-based governance.

 

 

CSH Policy Briefs  present socially relevant statements that can be derived from CSH research results.

 

 


News

Apr 1, 2020

Corona | Wirksamkeit der Massnahmen

Press

Gut gemachte Apps können bei der Krisenbewältigung helfen


Kurier, Mar 31, 2020

News

Mar 30, 2020

Apps can help with emotions in times of crisis [DE & EN]

Press

Knapp 1000 Corona-Patienten in stationärer Behandlung


Wiener Zeitung, Mar 30, 2020

News

Mar 30, 2020

Corona | Emotions [German & English]

Press

8.552 Coronavirus-Fälle Sonntagvormittag in Österreich


Vorarlberg Online, Mar 29, 2020

Press

Infektionen in Österreich abgeflacht, Plus bei Toten


Vorarlberg Online, Mar 29, 2020

Event

[cancelled] CSH Workshop: “Communicating complex climate issues with deliberative democracy”


May 11, 2020May 12, 2020

CSH Vienna

News

Mar 22, 2020

Pooling samples could boost corona test efficiency

Event

[cancelled] CSH External Faculty Meeting 2020


May 26, 2020

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH Public Conference: “Complexity science as a transformative power”


May 25, 2020

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH Workshop: “Understanding online emotional communication”


Apr 23, 2020

News

Apr 1, 2020

Corona | Wirksamkeit der Massnahmen

Press

Gut gemachte Apps können bei der Krisenbewältigung helfen


Kurier, Mar 31, 2020

News

Mar 30, 2020

Apps can help with emotions in times of crisis [DE & EN]

Press

Knapp 1000 Corona-Patienten in stationärer Behandlung


Wiener Zeitung, Mar 30, 2020

News

Mar 30, 2020

Corona | Emotions [German & English]

Press

8.552 Coronavirus-Fälle Sonntagvormittag in Österreich


Vorarlberg Online, Mar 29, 2020

Press

Infektionen in Österreich abgeflacht, Plus bei Toten


Vorarlberg Online, Mar 29, 2020

Event

[cancelled] CSH Workshop: “Communicating complex climate issues with deliberative democracy”


May 11, 2020May 12, 2020

CSH Vienna

News

Mar 22, 2020

Pooling samples could boost corona test efficiency

Event

[cancelled] CSH External Faculty Meeting 2020


May 26, 2020

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH Public Conference: “Complexity science as a transformative power”


May 25, 2020

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH Workshop: “Understanding online emotional communication”


Apr 23, 2020

News

Apr 1, 2020

Corona | Wirksamkeit der Massnahmen

News

Mar 30, 2020

Apps can help with emotions in times of crisis [DE & EN]

News

Mar 30, 2020

Corona | Emotions [German & English]

News

Mar 22, 2020

Pooling samples could boost corona test efficiency

News

Mar 17, 2020

Corona | CSH refocuses its research

News

Mar 14, 2020

Coronavirus: Kapazitäten bei Spitalsbetten

News

Feb 28, 2020

Simply complex | Einfach komplex

News

Feb 25, 2020

US-China Trade Agreement

News

Feb 13, 2020

Coronavirus: CSH predicts high losses for Austrian economy

News

Feb 12, 2020

Economic costs of the coronavirus

News

Feb 10, 2020

What to think of Coronavirus 2019-nCoV

News

Dec 10, 2019

New book: Our deep past seen with big data eyes

Event

[cancelled] CSH Workshop: “Communicating complex climate issues with deliberative democracy”


May 11, 2020May 12, 2020

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH External Faculty Meeting 2020


May 26, 2020

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH Public Conference: “Complexity science as a transformative power”


May 25, 2020

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH Workshop: “Understanding online emotional communication”


Apr 23, 2020

Event

[cancelled] CSH–OeAW Lecture by Ronnie Ellenblum: “‘Resilience’ or ‘Fragility’? Reconsidering Climate and Historical Civilizations”


Mar 11, 2020 | 15:0016:30

ÖAW

Event

[cancelled] CSH Talk by Mirsad Hadzikadic: “Data Science, Machine Learning, Artificial …”


Mar 13, 2020 | 15:0016:00

CSH Vienna

Talk

“Complex privacy”


David Garcia.

May 14, 2020May 15, 2020

Event

CSH Talk by Christiane Puchhammer: “Dimensional reduction through metric pseudo-time”


Mar 06, 2020 | 15:0016:00

CSH Vienna

Event

[cancelled] CSH Workshop: “Building non‐Euclidian spaces to measure, understand, and navigate complex social transitions”


Mar 03, 2020 | 9:00Mar 04, 2020 | 17:00

CSH Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Frank Neffke


Feb 24, 2020 | 14:3015:30

CSH Vienna

Visitor

Frank Neffke, Harvard Kennedy School


Feb 24, 2020

Event

CSH Talk by Achim Edelmann: “What shapes scientists’ position taking in contested public debates?”


Feb 20, 2020 | 14:0015:00

CSH Vienna

Press

Gut gemachte Apps können bei der Krisenbewältigung helfen


Kurier, Mar 31, 2020

Press

Knapp 1000 Corona-Patienten in stationärer Behandlung


Wiener Zeitung, Mar 30, 2020

Press

8.552 Coronavirus-Fälle Sonntagvormittag in Österreich


Vorarlberg Online, Mar 29, 2020

Press

Infektionen in Österreich abgeflacht, Plus bei Toten


Vorarlberg Online, Mar 29, 2020

Press

8.552 Coronavirus-Fälle Sonntagvormittag in Österreich


Vienna Online, Mar 29, 2020

Press

Überfluss an Intensivbetten kommt uns jetzt zugute


Kronen Zeitung, Mar 28, 2020

Press

OZBILJNO STANJE U SUSJEDSTVU Austrijski znanstvenik [Croatian]


Direktn, Mar 27, 2020

Press

Wissenschafter warnen: “Maßnahmen nicht zu schnell wieder aufheben”


OÖ Nachrichten, Mar 27, 2020

Press

Erst testen – und dann rückverfolgen


Wiener Zeitung, Mar 27, 2020

Press

Coronavirus: Forscher mit neuen Berechnungen


k.at, Mar 27, 2020

Press

Forscher warnt: Österreich auf selbem Kurs wie Italien


Heute, Mar 27, 2020

Press

Coronavirus-Forscher: Österreich bei Toten derzeit auf Kurs Italiens


Kurier, Mar 26, 2020