Effects of a total loss in Ukrainian food production


Mar 4, 2022

Two steps down the food supply chain

 

The world is watching the war in Ukraine with ever-increasing concern.

 

One of the many reasons the Russian invasion could turn into a huge problem for the world as a whole is the the fact that the country is one of the world’s largest exporters of agricultural products, especially of maize, wheat, and sunflower seed oil.

 

What happens if we loose these products? CSH scientists modeled the direct and indirect effects of a worst-case scenario, i.e., a total production loss in the Ukraine.

 

They compiled their findings in a Policy Brief, written by Moritz Laber, Peter Klimek, Liuhuaying Yang, Tobias Reisch, and Stefan Thurner.

 

CSH Policy Brief 2/2022:

How the war in Ukraine might affect global food supply

 

Liu produced two infographics showing direct and indirect losses throughout the world (below).

 

Follow this link for an interactive, high-resolution version.

 

 

Effects on sunflower seed oil availability

 

(Click for a list with the country codes.)

Effects on sunflower seed oil availability in different countries if Ukraine (black) loses 100% of its sunflower seed oil production (given that other countries do not change trading partners or use substitute products). For sunflower seed oil, the direct trade contribution (yellow) dominates, indirect effects (blue) are less important. Countries are ordered by their approximate geolocation. Largest relative losses occur in African and Mideastern countries. European countries are less affected.

Effects on maize availability

Losses in global maize availability in different countries if Ukraine (black) loses 100% of its maize production (if countries do not change suppliers or substitute maize with other products). Indirect effects (blue circles) play a major role on top of the losses expected from direct trade (yellow). Direct losses are noticeable in the Mideast and the Baltic countries. Indirect effects occur in Southern Europe.

Publication

T. Reisch, G. Heiler, C. Diem, P. Klimek, S. Thurner

Monitoring supply networks from mobile phone data for estimating the systemic risk of an economy

Scientific Reports 12 (13347) (2022)

Event

CSH Talk by Daniel Martin Katz: "Measuring and managing legal complexity"


Sep 30, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

News

Sep 30, 2022

Supply Chains: The next big thing at the Hub

Event

CSH Talk by Pedro Moreno-Sánchez: "Privacy-preserving blockchain applications with adaptor signatures"


Oct 07, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Press

¿Qué han aprendido los científicos de los confinamientos de la COVID19? [Spanish] [feat. Peter Klimek]


Viento Sur, Sep 9, 2022

Press

SARS-Ani | Infographic of the week [feat. Amélie Desvars-Larrive & CSH Vis]


Nature Briefings, Sep 21, 2022

Publication

R. Prieto Curiel, A. Schumann, I. Heo, P. Heinrigs

Detecting cities with high intermediacy in the African urban network

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 98 (2022) 101869

Publication

J. Lasser, S. Taofeek Aroyehun, et al.

Social media sharing of low quality news sources by political elites

PNAS Nexus (2022) pgac186

Press

Pourquoi la tech séduit de nouveau les étudiants américains [French] [feat. Peter Turchin]


L'Expansion, Sep 12, 2022

Research News

Sep 20, 2022

Data is a crucial tool against Covid-19

News

Sep 21, 2022

CSH awarded OENB basic funding

Event

CSH Talk by Kenji Itao: "Explaining universality and diversity in social phenomena using evolutionary simulation"


Oct 05, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Publication

T. Reisch, G. Heiler, C. Diem, P. Klimek, S. Thurner

Monitoring supply networks from mobile phone data for estimating the systemic risk of an economy

Scientific Reports 12 (13347) (2022)

Event

CSH Talk by Daniel Martin Katz: "Measuring and managing legal complexity"


Sep 30, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

News

Sep 30, 2022

Supply Chains: The next big thing at the Hub

Event

CSH Talk by Pedro Moreno-Sánchez: "Privacy-preserving blockchain applications with adaptor signatures"


Oct 07, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Press

¿Qué han aprendido los científicos de los confinamientos de la COVID19? [Spanish] [feat. Peter Klimek]


Viento Sur, Sep 9, 2022

Press

SARS-Ani | Infographic of the week [feat. Amélie Desvars-Larrive & CSH Vis]


Nature Briefings, Sep 21, 2022

Publication

R. Prieto Curiel, A. Schumann, I. Heo, P. Heinrigs

Detecting cities with high intermediacy in the African urban network

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 98 (2022) 101869

Publication

J. Lasser, S. Taofeek Aroyehun, et al.

Social media sharing of low quality news sources by political elites

PNAS Nexus (2022) pgac186

Press

Pourquoi la tech séduit de nouveau les étudiants américains [French] [feat. Peter Turchin]


L'Expansion, Sep 12, 2022

Research News

Sep 20, 2022

Data is a crucial tool against Covid-19

News

Sep 21, 2022

CSH awarded OENB basic funding

Event

CSH Talk by Kenji Itao: "Explaining universality and diversity in social phenomena using evolutionary simulation"


Oct 05, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

News

Sep 30, 2022

Supply Chains: The next big thing at the Hub

News

Sep 21, 2022

CSH awarded OENB basic funding

Research News

Sep 20, 2022

Data is a crucial tool against Covid-19

People

Sep 16, 2022

Andrea Rapisarda wins the Ig Nobel Prize for Economics

Research News

Aug 8, 2022

Scientists create computer risk model to tackle supply chain disruption

Research News

Jul 28, 2022

A stress test for the (Austrian) healthcare system

Research News

Jul 26, 2022

Study unveils first global dataset for SARS-CoV-2 infections in animals

People

Jul 18, 2022

Complexity GAINS | Toward a multifaceted and integrative science

People

Jul 13, 2022

Two months with two COSY Journalists in Residence

Research News

Jun 24, 2022

Testing theories on What drove the Holocene transformation

Spotlight

Jun 23, 2022

Cooperation agreement with Bavaria to fight internet criminality

Research News

Jun 21, 2022

Want to improve the company’s performance? Get more women on the boardroom

Press

SARS-Ani | Infographic of the week [feat. Amélie Desvars-Larrive & CSH Vis]


Nature Briefings, Sep 21, 2022

Press

¿Qué han aprendido los científicos de los confinamientos de la COVID19? [Spanish] [feat. Peter Klimek]


Viento Sur, Sep 9, 2022

Press

Pourquoi la tech séduit de nouveau les étudiants américains [French] [feat. Peter Turchin]


L'Expansion, Sep 12, 2022

Press

What scientists have learnt from COVID lockdowns [feat. Peter Klimek]


Nature News, Sep 7, 2022

Press

Geography Lessons From the 9/11 Terrorist Network [feat. Rafael Prieto Curiel]


Lawfare Blog, Sep 5, 2022

Press

Estudo inédito de Oxford e UFPE aponta que não há evidência de fraude nas eleições de 2018 [Portuguese] [feat. R. Hanel, P. Klimek, S. Thurner]


BBC News | Brasil, Sep 16, 2022

Press

為何會有「報復性投票」?!損人不利己的惡意行為,可能是追求公平正義路上的必要之惡?[Opinion] [feat. Peter Turchin]


Vocus, Sep 2, 2022

Press

Student Loan Forgiveness: A Payoff for the Woke [Opinion] [feat. Peter Turchin]


The New York Sun, Sep 2, 2022

Press

Kreislaufwirtschaft jetzt!


respACT, Aug 31, 2022

Press

50 años de caos o estabilidad [Spanish] [feat. Peter Turchin]


Vanguardia, Sep 16, 2022

Press

Wie wenige Unternehmen die Liefernetzwerke ins Schwanken bringen [feat. Stefan Thurner]


Factory Net, Sep 1, 2022

Press

Experte: Europa sollte seine Lieferketten besser kennen [feat. Stefan Thurner]


APA Science, Aug 27, 2022

Publication

J. Lasser, S. Taofeek Aroyehun, et al.

Social media sharing of low quality news sources by political elites

PNAS Nexus (2022) pgac186

Publication

R. Prieto Curiel, A. Schumann, I. Heo, P. Heinrigs

Detecting cities with high intermediacy in the African urban network

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 98 (2022) 101869

Publication

T. Reisch, G. Heiler, C. Diem, P. Klimek, S. Thurner

Monitoring supply networks from mobile phone data for estimating the systemic risk of an economy

Scientific Reports 12 (13347) (2022)

Publication

G. De Marzo, F. Pandolfelli, V.D.P. Servedio

Modeling innovation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem

Scientific Reports 12 (12942) (2022)

Publication

A. Nerpel, et al.

SARS-ANI: a global open access dataset of reported SARS-CoV-2 events in animals

Scientific Data 9 (438) (2022)

Publication

M. Kaleta, J. Lasser, E. Dervic, et al.

Stress-testing the resilience of the Austrian healthcare system using agent-based simulation

Nature Communications 13 (4259) (2022)

Publication

F. Amman, et al.

Viral variant-resolved wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 at national scale

Nature Biotechnology (2022)

Publication

J. V. Camp, A. Desvars-Larrive, N. Nowotny, C. Walzer

Monitoring urban zoonotic virus activity: Are city rats a promising surveillance tool for emerging viruses?

Viruses 14 (7) (2022) 1516

Publication

M. Pellert, H. Metzler, M. Matzenberger, D. Garcia

Validating daily social media macroscopes of emotions

Scientific Reports 12 (2022) 11236

Publication

P. Turchin, et al.

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity in human history: A comprehensive test of hypotheses

Science Advances 8 (25) (2022)

Publication

R. Prieto Curiel, H. González Ramírez, S. Bishop

A ubiquitous collective tragedy in transport

Frontiers in Physics (2022)

Publication

M. Oliveira, F. Karimi, et al.

Group mixing drives inequality in face-to-face gatherings

Communications Physics 5 (127) (2022)

Event

CSH Talk by Daniel Martin Katz: "Measuring and managing legal complexity"


Sep 30, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Kenji Itao: "Explaining universality and diversity in social phenomena using evolutionary simulation"


Oct 05, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Pedro Moreno-Sánchez: "Privacy-preserving blockchain applications with adaptor signatures"


Oct 07, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Tommaso Rughi: "Climate change and labour-saving technologies"


Oct 14, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Workshop: "Evolution and geography of collective knowledge"


Oct 17, 2022Oct 19, 2022

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Workshop: "Collective Resilience"


Oct 19, 2022Oct 21, 2022

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Elisa Omodei: "Complexity and data-driven approaches to monitor the SDGs..."


Oct 28, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Philipp Koch: "The historical role of migrants in the geography of knowledge"


Nov 04, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Veronica Mierzejewski: "Scaling in biochemistry and how novel functions arise..."


Oct 25, 2022 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Webtalk by Beate Conrady: "Agent-based-spread-model for Salmonella Dublin Infections..."


Nov 23, 2022 | 15:0016:00