CSH Talk by Alejandro Lage-Castellanos: “Was mobility a good predictor of COVID cases in Havana’s first wave?”

Jul 29, 2022 | 10:0011:00

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The talk by Alejandro Lage-Castellanos from Havana University, Kuba, will take place onsite at CSH in the Salon. The talk starts at 10:00 am CEST.


For those who cannot attend in person, we will set up a Zoom connection (without support during the talk). If you would like to receive the Zoom link, please send us an email. 





I will present an overview of the results of analyzing mobile phone data to create population mobility models in Cuba. In particular, I will present the impact of the NPIs limiting human mobility.


We studied the Granger causality relation between the COVID cases time series in every Health Area in Havana and tried to predict the sequence in any given area based on the population mobility interaction between that area and other areas with cases. We show that at this level of detail, mobility is a negligible contribution to predicting new cases.




Dr. Alejandro Lage Castellanos is the head of the Theoretical Physics Department and a full professor at Havana University, Cuba. He also leads the Complex System Research center in Cuba. He received his bachelor’s degree in Physics from Havana University Cuba in 2005, and his PhD in 2012.


His main research topics are Statistical Physics, Complex systems, Game theory, Human mobility models, and System biology.  He has been working closely with the Cuban National Telecommunications Company and was part of the government advisor expert team during the COVID-19.


Jul 29, 2022


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