CSH visitor Luca Mungo (University of Oxford) will give a talk within our seminar series on Friday, March 18 at 3 pm on Zoom.
If you would like to join, please send us an email.
Title: “Reconstructing production networks with Machine Learning”
The vulnerability of supply chains and their role in the propagation of shocks has been highlighted multiple times in recent years, including by the recent pandemic. However, while the importance of micro data is increasingly recognised, data at the firm-to-firm level remains scarcely available. We formulate the reconstruction of supply chain networks as a link prediction problem and tackle it using machine learning. We test our approach on three different supply chain datasets and show that it works very well and outperforms three benchmarks. An analysis of features’ importance suggests that the key data underlying our predictions are firms’ industry, location, and size. Using different datasets for training and testing, we evaluate our approach’s effectiveness in a real-world scenario when no production network data is available.