The workshop is organized by Peter Turchin . It will take place on February 7–8, 2023 at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna.
“How resilient are societies to forces of disorder? Historical analysis reveals that the ability of societies to deal with a crisis, whether successfully or not, critically depends on its structural characteristics.
Many European societies are currently embroiled in a “polycrisis”—the interconnected threats to societal stability and function stemming from changing climate, emergent diseases, rampant inequality, and major geopolitical/geoeconomic shocks. Are these stressors driving increasing societal vulnerability to outbreaks of political instability? In particular, why did many European states experience more than a tenfold increase in anti-government demonstrations and violent riots in the past decade?
We propose establishing a comprehensive data resource to track variables that previous research identified as instability drivers in the past. A quantitative model, which uses these factors as predictors of instability, was used in 2010 to predict an increase of political instability in USA with a peak in the 2020s. Building on the success of this model, we propose to extend the investigation to the European context. Using large datasets from European and Austrian sources, this “Social Monitor” will track indicators of social well-being, inequality, elite overproduction, and political violence. We use these data to test to what extent previously identified drivers of instability are able to predict levels of current and future instability.”