CSH President Stefan Thurner will give this (virtual) talk at the hybrid Econophysics Colloquium 2021, a satellite of the Conference on Complex Systems CCS in Lyon (France). The satellite takes place on Oct 27–28.
Economies are networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Companies —if they default– can trigger significant shock cascades in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky.
Up to now, systemic risk of individual companies was practically not quantifiable, due to the unavailability of firm-level transaction data.
So far, economic shocks are typically studied in the framework of input-output analysis on the industry-level that can’t relate risk to individual firms. We show how exact firm-level supply networks based on national tax data can be used to compute systemic risk contributions of literally every company in a country. In particular, we are able to identify the high systemic risk companies that have the potential to trigger large cascades of disruption in production chains. We discuss the systemic risk profile of Hungary and discuss the high-risk firms and their organization. We finally explore the possibility to use telecommunication data to reconstruct national supply networks on the firm-level.