How to predict city traffic


Feb 28, 2023

A new machine learning model can predict city traffic activity in different urban zones. To do so, a Complexity Science Hub researcher used data from a main car-sharing company in Italy as a proxy for overall city traffic. Understanding how different urban zones interact can help avoid traffic jams, for example, and enable targeted responses of policy makers – such as local expansion of public transportation.

Understanding people’s mobility patterns will be central to improving urban traffic flow. “As populations grow in urban areas, this knowledge can help policymakers design and implement effective transportation policies and inclusive urban planning”, says Simone Daniotti of the Complexity Science Hub. 

 

For example, if the model shows that there is a nontrivial connection between two zones, i.e., that people commute from one zone to another for certain reasons, services could be provided that compensate for this interaction. If, on the flip side, the model shows that there is little activity in a particular location, policymakers could use that knowledge to invest in structures to change that.

MODEL ALSO FOR OTHER CITIES LIKE VIENNA

For this study a major car-sharing company provided the data: the location of all cars in their fleet in four Italian cities (Rome, Turin, Milan, and Florence) in 2017. The data was obtained by constantly querying the service provider’s web APIs, recording the parking location of each car, as well as the start and end timestamps. “This information allows us to identify the origin and destination of each trip,” Daniotti explains. 

 

Daniotti used that as a proxy for all city traffic and created a model that not only allows accurate spatio-temporal forecasting in different urban areas, but also accurate anomaly detection. Anomalies such as strikes and bad weather conditions, both of which are related to traffic. 

 

The model could also make predictions about traffic patterns for other cities such as Vienna. “However, this would require appropriate data,” Daniotti points out.

Predict traffic in cities © Complexity Science Hub, Sony CS

OUTPERFORMING OTHER MODELS

While there are already many models designed to predict traffic behavior in cities, “the vast majority of prediction models on aggregated data are not fully interpretable. Even though some structure of the model connects two zones, they cannot be interpreted as an interaction” explains Daniotti. This limits understanding of the underlying mechanisms that govern citizens’ daily routines.

 

Since only a minimal number of constraints are considered and all parameters represent actual interactions, the new model is fully interpretable.

Predict traffic in cities © Complexity Science Hub, Sony CS

BUT WHAT IS PREDICTION WITHOUT INTERPRETATION?

“Of course it is important to make predictions,” Daniotti explains, “but you can make very accurate predictions, and if you don’t interpret the results correctly, you sometimes run the risk of drawing very wrong conclusions.” 

 

Without knowing the reason why the model is showing a particular result, it is difficult to control for events where the model was not showing what you expected. “Inspecting the model and understanding it, helps us, and also policy makers, to not draw wrong conclusions,” Daniotti points out.

FIND OUT MORE

The study “A maximum entropy approach for the modelling of car-sharing parking dynamics” has been published in Scientific Reports.


Press

Impfpflicht und politischer Einfluss: Experten ziehen Bilanz über drei Jahre Pandemie [feat. Peter Klimek]


Die Presse, Mar 19, 2023

Press

"War of Words: Scientists Reveal How to Create the Ultimate Word List for Different Languages" [feat. Anna Di Natale]


Newswav, Mar 14, 2023

Research News

Mar 16, 2023

How countries can benefit from linking data

Publication

V.D.P. Servedio, M. R. Ferreira, N. Reisz, R. Costas, S. Thurner

Scale-free growth in regional scientific capacity building explains long-term scientific dominance

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 167 (2023) 113020

Event

CSH-ITU Copenhagen Workshop: "Sustainable Mobility: Data, Networks, and Complexity"


Apr 14, 2023 | 8:3013:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Press

Sturm statt Elfenbeinturm [feat. Hannah Metzler]


Falter, Mar 21, 2023

Research News

Mar 20, 2023

Climate-tech innovation needs corporate investment

Publication

W. Schueller, J. Wachs, V. D. P. Servedio, S. Thurner, V. Loreto

Evolving collaboration, dependencies, and use in the Rust Open Source Software ecosystem

Scientific Data 9 (2022) 703

Publication

N. Pontika, T. Klebel, A. Correia, H. Metzler, P. Knoth, T. Ross-Hellauer

Indicators of research quality, quantity, openness and responsibility in institutional review, promotion and tenure policies across seven countries

Quantitative Science Studies 1-49

Event

CSH Talk by Tatiana Filatova: "Cities, markets and climate change: a complexity perspective"


Apr 19, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Norbert Streitz: "Perspectives for Designing Complex Citizens-City Relationships: Participation, Cooperation, Co-Creation and Empowerment"


May 03, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Research News

Mar 16, 2023

A new approach to measuring multidirectional polarization

Press

Impfpflicht und politischer Einfluss: Experten ziehen Bilanz über drei Jahre Pandemie [feat. Peter Klimek]


Die Presse, Mar 19, 2023

Press

"War of Words: Scientists Reveal How to Create the Ultimate Word List for Different Languages" [feat. Anna Di Natale]


Newswav, Mar 14, 2023

Research News

Mar 16, 2023

How countries can benefit from linking data

Publication

V.D.P. Servedio, M. R. Ferreira, N. Reisz, R. Costas, S. Thurner

Scale-free growth in regional scientific capacity building explains long-term scientific dominance

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 167 (2023) 113020

Event

CSH-ITU Copenhagen Workshop: "Sustainable Mobility: Data, Networks, and Complexity"


Apr 14, 2023 | 8:3013:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Press

Sturm statt Elfenbeinturm [feat. Hannah Metzler]


Falter, Mar 21, 2023

Research News

Mar 20, 2023

Climate-tech innovation needs corporate investment

Publication

W. Schueller, J. Wachs, V. D. P. Servedio, S. Thurner, V. Loreto

Evolving collaboration, dependencies, and use in the Rust Open Source Software ecosystem

Scientific Data 9 (2022) 703

Publication

N. Pontika, T. Klebel, A. Correia, H. Metzler, P. Knoth, T. Ross-Hellauer

Indicators of research quality, quantity, openness and responsibility in institutional review, promotion and tenure policies across seven countries

Quantitative Science Studies 1-49

Event

CSH Talk by Tatiana Filatova: "Cities, markets and climate change: a complexity perspective"


Apr 19, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Norbert Streitz: "Perspectives for Designing Complex Citizens-City Relationships: Participation, Cooperation, Co-Creation and Empowerment"


May 03, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Research News

Mar 16, 2023

A new approach to measuring multidirectional polarization

Research News

Mar 20, 2023

Climate-tech innovation needs corporate investment

Research News

Mar 16, 2023

A new approach to measuring multidirectional polarization

Research News

Mar 16, 2023

How countries can benefit from linking data

News

Mar 15, 2023

Meet the "data magician"

Spotlight

Mar 14, 2023

Irrationally fascinating

News

Mar 13, 2023

Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) - a comment by Bernhard Haslhofer

Research News

Mar 13, 2023

A new and better way to create word lists

News

Mar 6, 2023

CSH takes the lead in supply chain research with ASCII

News

Mar 6, 2023

CSH übernimmt mit ASCII eine Vorreiterrolle in der Lieferkettenforschung

News

Mar 6, 2023

Peter Klimek: „Wir müssen die Produktions- und Liefernetzwerke besser kennenlernen“

Press

Sturm statt Elfenbeinturm [feat. Hannah Metzler]


Falter, Mar 21, 2023

Press

Impfpflicht und politischer Einfluss: Experten ziehen Bilanz über drei Jahre Pandemie [feat. Peter Klimek]


Die Presse, Mar 19, 2023

Press

"War of Words: Scientists Reveal How to Create the Ultimate Word List for Different Languages" [feat. Anna Di Natale]


Newswav, Mar 14, 2023

Press

Frauen in der Chefetage – das vernachlässigte Potenzial [feat. Matthias Raddant]


Wiener Zeitung, Mar 8, 2023

Press

Top-Forscher Klimek widmet sich dem Lieferketten-Problem [feat.Peter Klimek]


Kurier.at, Mar 6, 2023

Press

Modell prognostiziert städtisches Verkehrsaufkommen [feat.Simone Daniotti]


ORF, Feb 28, 2023

Press

Measuring 6,000 African cities: Double [feat.Rafael Prieto-Curiel]


ScienceDaily, Feb 28, 2023

Press

Wie Afrikas künftige Megastädte Energie sparen [feat.Rafael Prieto-Curiel]


Nachrichten.at, Feb 23, 2023

Press

Klimek: Aufarbeitung ist mehr als "Lockdown-Tage zählen" [feat.Peter Klimek]


MSN Austria, Feb 17, 2023

Press

Anonymität bei Krypto-Deals aufheben [feat.Bernhard Haslhofer]


ORF, Feb 16, 2023

Press

Tweets zu Suizidprävention können Suizide verhindern [feat.Hannah Metzler, Thomas Niederkrotenthaler]


Anästhesie Nachrichten, Feb 9, 2023

Publication

V.D.P. Servedio, M. R. Ferreira, N. Reisz, R. Costas, S. Thurner

Scale-free growth in regional scientific capacity building explains long-term scientific dominance

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 167 (2023) 113020

Publication

M. Leutner, M. Butylina, C. Matzhold, et al.

Simvastatin therapy in higher dosages deteriorates bone quality: Consistent evidence from population-wide patient data and interventional mouse studies

Biomedicine & Pharmacotherapy 158 (2023) 114089

Publication

W. Schueller, J. Wachs, V. D. P. Servedio, S. Thurner, V. Loreto

Evolving collaboration, dependencies, and use in the Rust Open Source Software ecosystem

Scientific Data 9 (2022) 703

Publication

N. Pontika, T. Klebel, A. Correia, H. Metzler, P. Knoth, T. Ross-Hellauer

Indicators of research quality, quantity, openness and responsibility in institutional review, promotion and tenure policies across seven countries

Quantitative Science Studies 1-49

Publication

H. Kong, S. Martin-Gutierrez, F. Karimi

Influence of the first-mover advantage on the gender disparities in physics citations

Communications Physics 5 (243) (2022)

Publication

A. Pichler, M. Pangallo, M. del Rio-Chanona, F. Lafond, D. Farmer

Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2022) 104527

Publication

J. Lasser, S. Taofeek Aroyehun, et al.

Social media sharing of low quality news sources by political elites

PNAS Nexus (2022) pgac186

Publication

R. Prieto Curiel, A. Schumann, I. Heo, P. Heinrigs

Detecting cities with high intermediacy in the African urban network

Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 98 (2022) 101869

Publication

T. Reisch, G. Heiler, C. Diem, P. Klimek, S. Thurner

Monitoring supply networks from mobile phone data for estimating the systemic risk of an economy

Scientific Reports 12 (13347) (2022)

Publication

G. De Marzo, F. Pandolfelli, V.D.P. Servedio

Modeling innovation in the cryptocurrency ecosystem

Scientific Reports 12 (12942) (2022)

Publication

A. Nerpel, et al.

SARS-ANI: a global open access dataset of reported SARS-CoV-2 events in animals

Scientific Data 9 (438) (2022)

Publication

M. Kaleta, J. Lasser, E. Dervic, et al.

Stress-testing the resilience of the Austrian healthcare system using agent-based simulation

Nature Communications 13 (4259) (2022)

Event

CSH Talk by Norbert Streitz: "Perspectives for Designing Complex Citizens-City Relationships: Participation, Cooperation, Co-Creation and Empowerment"


May 03, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH-ITU Copenhagen Workshop: "Sustainable Mobility: Data, Networks, and Complexity"


Apr 14, 2023 | 8:3013:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Tatiana Filatova: "Cities, markets and climate change: a complexity perspective"


Apr 19, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by Jan Korbel: "Homophily-based social group formation in a spin-glass self-assembly framework"


Mar 31, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna