New CSH Policy Brief sheds light on Russian elections in September
The statistical election toolkit developed earlier by Hub scientists indicates huge irregularities in the recent Duma elections.
In a new policy brief, Hub scientists present statistical analyses of data from the 2021 Duma elections held September 17 to 19 in Russia. For their work, Stefan Thurner and Peter Klimek used a statistical forensic toolkit they published in 2018.
Stefan and Peter see systematic and highly significant statistical evidence for the presence of ballot-stuffing, i.e., multiple ballots per person during the voting process, as well as voter rigging: the intimidation and coercion of voters.
According to this work, Vladimir Putin’s party United Russia would have yielded an overall outcome of around 30 percent instead of the officially postulated 50 percent without electoral malpractice. Smaller voting stations contributed much stronger to statistical irregularities than larger stations, which is a strong sing for intimidation and/or ballot-stuffing.
Results from the ballot-stuffing model
“In about half of all voting districts different degrees of ballot-stuffing have to be assumed to explain the observed statistics. In 49 % of stations, we find signs for ballot-stuffing,” says the CSH Policy Brief.
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