Study: COVID-19 prevalence in Austria


Apr 10, 2020

COVID-19 Prävalenz in Österreich

 

Am 10.4. wurden die Ergebnisse der repräsentativen Studie zum Thema COVID-19 Prävalenz veröffentlicht. Ziel der Studie, an welcher auch der Complexity Science Hub Vienna beteiligt war, war es herauszufinden, wie viele Menschen sich in Österreich mit Corona infiziert haben (Prävalenz). Es handelt sich um die weltweit erste Studie dieser Art.

 

Im Zeitraum 1.4. bis 6.4. wurden Zufallsstichproben von 1.544 Österreichern genommen, um herauszufinden, wie groß die Dunkelziffer bei den Coronavirus-Infektionen ist. Der Anteil der positiv Getesteten beträgt in der gewichteten Stichprobe 0,32 %. Umgelegt auf die Bevölkerung sind das ca. 28.500 Personen.

 

Konfidenz-Intervall („Schwankungsbreite“)

 

Wird von einer Stichproben-Erhebung ein Schluss auf eine Grundgesamtheit (Population) gezogen, ist stets das Konfidenzintervall („Schwankungsbreite“) zu beachten. Als Standard hat sich hier durchgesetzt, dass die Ergebnisse mit 95%-iger Sicherheit innerhalb des angegebenen Intervalls liegen.

 

Für die Berechnung eines Konfidenz-Intervalls für kleine Anteile eignet sich die Methode des Clopper-Pearson Intervall. Auf die COVID-19-Studie angewandt, bedeutet es, dass die Prävalenz von COVID-19 in österreichischen Haushalten mit 95%-iger Wahrscheinlichkeit zwischen 0,12% und 0,76% liegt.

 

In absoluten Zahlen: Es gab, zusätzlich zu den Erkrankten in Spitälern, in der Periode 1.-6. April mit 95%-iger Wahrscheinlichkeit zwischen 10.200 und 67.400 akut COVID-19-Infizierte.

 

Nettostichprobe

 

n=1.544

  • Von n=1.541 Personen liegen sowohl ein auswertbarer PCR-Test als auch ein verwertbarer Erhebungsbogen vor.
  • n=3 Personen gaben bei der Rekrutierung an, dass sie kürzlich positiv getestet wurden. Diese wurden nicht erneut getestet, aber als positiv getestet in die Stichprobe inkludiert. Dies erlaubt eine Korrektur der Stichprobe um die systematischen Ausfälle.
  • Die für die Berechnungen verwendete Nettostichprobe enthält daher n=1.544 Fälle.

 

Weitere Informationen sind hier abrufbar: https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html

COVID-19 prevalence in Austria

 

On April 10th the results of the representative study on COVID-19 prevalence in Austria were published. The aim of the study, in which the Complexity Science Hub Vienna was also involved, was to find out how many people in Austria were infected with corona (prevalence). This is the first study of its kind in the world.

 

From April 1 until 6 random samples from 1,544 Austrians were taken to find out what the number of unreported cases of coronavirus infections is. The proportion of those positively tested in the weighted sample is 0.33%. This proportion represents about 28,500 people among the population.

 

Confidence interval (95%)

 

If a sample survey draws a conclusion on a population, the confidence interval must always be observed. For this study, the generally accepted principle was applied that results should be within the stated interval with 95% certainty.

Applying the Clopper-Pearson interval method, we find that the prevalence of COVID-19 in Austrian households is 95% likely to be between 0.12 and 0.76%.

In absolute terms: In addition to the patients in hospitals, there were between 10,200 and 67,400 people acutely infected with COVID-19 in the period April 1- 6.

 

Net sample n=1,544

 

  • For n = 1,541 persons, both a correct PCR test and a valid questionnaire are available.
  • During recruiting, n = 3 people indicated that they had recently tested positive. These were not tested again but included in the sample as having tested positive. This allows the sample to be corrected for systematic error.
  • The net sample used for the calculations therefore contains n = 1,544 cases.

 

For more information please check https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html


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