Weapons, armour, fortifications
New research conducted through the Hub and applied to a rich historical dataset shed light on the evolution of “war machines.”
CSH team leader Peter Turchin and an interdisciplinary team of colleagues, including Jenny Reddish, set out to test competing theories about what drove the evolution of war machines throughout world history. According to their study, which was just published in the journal PLOS ONE, the strongest influences on the evolution of military technology come from
- world population size,
- the connectivity between geographical areas,
- advances in critical technologies such as iron metallurgy or horse riding.
Conversely, and to the researcher’s surprise, state-level factors such as the size of the population, the territory, or the complexity of governance seem not to have played a major role.
Using Big Data for big questions
“We had two goals for this study,” Peter points out. “First, we wanted to draw a clear picture of where and when military technologies appeared in pre-industrial societies. Second, we intended to find out why important technologies were developed or adopted in certain places.”
For their analyses, the researchers used Seshat: Global History Databank, a large and constantly growing collection of historical and archaeological data from across the globe. To date, Seshat has assembled around 200,000 entries from more than 500 societies, spanning 10,000 years of human history.
“Seshat is a goldmine for the study of cultural evolution,” says Peter, who initiated and further developed the database together with a team of anthropologists, historians, archaeologists, mathematicians, computer scientists, and evolutionary scientists.
To explore this data, the authors applied innovative quantitative methods of mathematical modeling and statistical analysis.
Bit and bridle led to mega-empires
“Some military inventions had cascading effects on cultural and social evolution,” explains Peter, who conducted the data analyses in this study. “The invention of bit and bridle, for instance, made it easier to control horses, which led to advances in weapons or the appearance of mounted archers and knights, which again made it necessary to build better fortifications. According to our study, this bundle of military technologies was one of the most important factors leading to the rise of mega-empires and of world religions like Christianity, Buddhism, and Islam during the first millennium BCE.”
The research team defines a ‘mega-empire’ as a society supporting tens of millions of inhabitants and covering millions of square kilometers of territory, which they say began to appear in different parts of Europe and Asia as part of a process of growing social complexity driven by the connection—and competition—between states with increasingly advanced and dangerous technology.
The scientists also found strong signs of the importance of agricultural productivity. “A certain level of food production may have been necessary for the subsequent development of new war technologies,” says co-author Dan Hoyer, who leads and organizes Seshat data collection. “To explore the role of agriculture for the evolution of military technology in more detail would be an interesting next research step.”
Questions from the past for our future
Seshat was developed to distinguish cause and effect in theories of social evolution.
“Good data and methods like the ones we developed here offer a fresh perspective on a multitude of open questions, theories, and controversies in various fields, ranging from archaeology, to history, to the social sciences,” Peter emphasizes. Furthermore, studies like this can contribute to a general understanding of what makes a society thrive or how to recognize early signs of deterioration and societal collapse.
“A fundamental understanding of social dynamics is not only of academic interest,” says Turchin who works with a team at CSH on “Social Complexity and Collapse.” “To understand what leads to social transformation, and being able to identify the ‘tipping points’ that lead to either resilience or catastrophe, is crucial for all of us, especially today,” he concludes.
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Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer, Andrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Sergey Nefedov, Gary Feinman, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Enrico Cioni, Chelsea Thorpe, James S. Bennett, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse, Rise of the War Machines: Charting the Evolution of Military Technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution, PLOS ONE (Oct 20) 2021
Dec. 2, 2021:
Peter’s piece about this research in The Conversation was read by more than 12,000 people—the second most read contribution in November 2021!
Gemeinsam gegen die wachsende #Cyberkriminalität: Beim Treffen des @CSHVienna, der Zentralstelle Cybercrime Bayern #ZCB und den österreichischen Strafverfolgungsbehörden standen neue Methoden und die zukünftige Stoßrichtung im Fokus @staatsanwaelte @bhaslhofer @GenStABA #Kryp ... pic.twitter.com/5GtqOFW2k1
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