Vaccination speed for experts “well below worst case scenario”
In an updated Policy Brief available to the APA, it is stated “that the vaccination rate fell rapidly in the course of the summer of 2021 and is well below the assumed worst case scenario […] came to rest“.
In a risk assessment for the coming autumn, the experts determine the status quo: “Whereas in June 2021 an average of around 37,200 first doses of vaccines were administered daily, this average fell to around 6,100 in August 2021 (a decrease of around 84 percent).” With reference to data from Great Britain, the experts emphasize the protective effect of two-dose vaccines against symptomatic infection with the Delta variant, which currently accounts for more than 99 percent of all indicated cases. This increases on average to 79 percent after the second vaccination dose.
96 percent protection after the second stitch
The protective effect of vaccines against the risk of hospitalization “is significantly higher”, emphasizes the consortium: According to analyzes from the United Kingdom, the effectiveness of vaccinations is 80 percent after one vaccine dose and 96 percent after the second stitch. The experts are convinced that these results can be applied to Austria: “In the meantime, preliminary data on vaccine effectiveness are available from Austria, which suggest a similarly high vaccine effectiveness as reported in the international literature.”
As far as future development is concerned, the decisive factor for the consortium in the medium term is “whether the mitigating factors (vaccination rate, rate of vaccination and protective measures) or the factors driving the spread (increased transmissibility of the delta variant, effect of seasonality) predominate”. Just a few percentage points more in the vaccination coverage could “lead to a significantly earlier flattening of the fourth wave”. The peak of the median of the daily new infections can be reduced with a vaccination ceiling of 70 percent to a third of the incidence values that would be expected with a vaccination ceiling of 62 percent, according to the experts – the Covid prognosis consortium suspended Representatives of the Vienna University of Technology, the Medical University of Vienna / Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) and Gesundheit Österreich GmbH together – calculated.
Politics cannot fail to respond
If the proportion of the population that has not yet been immunized against Covid-19 cannot be reduced, the political decision-makers cannot fail to respond to the forecast consortium. Missing progress in vaccination must “be compensated for with more stringent protective measures in order to be able to flatten the fourth wave”, can be read in the paper.
In order to increase the vaccination coverage, subjects from the “Austria vaccinated” campaign are now also displayed in the dating apps Tinder, Zweisam and LoveScout24. “We call on our users to get vaccinated so that they can meet safely and experience meaningful encounters,” Alexandre Lubot, CEO of the dating app provider Match Group, was quoted in a broadcast. The advertising space is provided free of charge for this campaign.