Manifesto for a post-pandemic modeling - CSH

Manifesto for a post-pandemic modeling


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We were surprised by a pandemic that we were unable to predict, although we had a feeling and anxiety that something was coming . Even though the pandemic has been going on for over half a year, we do not see pandemic’s end. At most, we observe the country entering the quasi-steady state and/or then a slower or faster pandemic recurrence/rebound (“phoenix effect” ). Counting from the time of the “Spanish” epidemic from over a hundred years ago, we have not made enough progress in providing procedures for practical operation (see  for the universal philosophical/humanistic considerations). We have failed — the predictive power of epidemic models is low. Nevertheless, it is challenging to find at least a mathematical reason for this failure defining some of its causes precisely. Econophysics and sociophysics communities took this challenge seriously (see, e.g.,  and refs. therein).

 

M. Ausloos, D. Grech, T. Di Matteo, R. Kutner, C. Schickus, H. Stanley, Manifesto for a post-pandemic modeling, Physics A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 559 (2020) 125086