Peter Turchin

Faculty

Peter Turchin has been a project leader at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna since September 2020. Until June 2022, he was also a professor at the University of Connecticut. He chairs the Board of Directors of Seshat: Global History Databank.

 

Peter’s research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Peter has published two hundred articles, including a dozen in such top journals as Nature, Science, and PNAS. In 2004, Peter was designated as “Highly Cited Researcher” by ISIHighlyCited.com.

 

A founder of the field of Cliodynamics, his books include Ultrasociety (2106), Ages of Discord (2016), and The Great Holocene Transformation (2022).

Mail: turchin@csh.ac.at

Web: Personal Site

Publications

2023

G. Orlandi, D. Hoyer, et al.

Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China

PLoS ONE 18(8) (2023) e0289748

D. Kondor, J.S. Bennett, D. Gronenborn, N. Antunes, D. Hoyer, P. Turchin

Explaining population booms and busts in Mid-Holocene Europe

Scientific Reports 13 (2023) 9310

P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse, P. Francois, J. Larson, A. Covey

Introducing a special issue on the role of moralizing gods in the evolution of socio-political complexity

Religion, Brain & Behaviour 13(2) (2023) 121-123

2022

P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse, et al.

Explaining the rise of moralizing religions: a test of competing hypotheses using the Seshat Databank

Religion, Brain & Behavior (2022)

P. Turchin, H. Whitehouse, J. Larson, E. Cioni, J. Reddish, D. Hoyer, et al.

Big Gods and big science: further reflections on theory, data, and analysis

Religion, Brain & Behavior (2022)

P. Turchin, et al.

Disentangling the evolutionary drivers of social complexity in human history: A comprehensive test of hypotheses

Science Advances 8 (25) (2022)

H. Whitehouse, P. Francois, et al.

Testing the Big Gods hypothesis with global historical data: a review and “retake”

Religion, Brain & Behavior (2022)

2021

P. Turchin, et al.

Rise of the war machines: Charting the evolution of military technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution

PLoS ONE (Oct 20) (2021)

P. Turchin

Multipath Forecasting: the Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis

pre-print (2021)

P. Turchin, et al.

An integrative approach to estimating productivity in past societies using Seshat: Global History Databank

The Holocene (2021)

2020

P. Turchin

The Great Escape: A Review Essay on Escape from Rome: The Failure of Empire and the Road to Prosperity by Walter Scheidel (Princeton University Press, 2019)

Cliodynamics 11 (2) (2020)

P. Turchin, A. Korotayev

The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010–2020 decade: A retrospective assessment

PLoS ONE 15 (8) (2020) e0237458

P. Turchin, et al.

The Equinox2020 Seshat data release

Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution 11 (1) (2020)

A. Chakraborty, J. Chen, A. Desvars-Larrive, P. Klimek, E. Tames, D. Garcia, L. Horstmeyer, M. Kaleta, J. Lasser, J. Reddish, B. Pinior, J. Wachs, P. Turchin

Analyzing Covid-19 data using SIRD models

(in review) (2020) https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.28.20115527

D. Gronenborn, H. Strien, K. Wirtz, P. Turchin, C. Zielhofer, R. van Dick

Inherent Collapse? Social Dynamics and External Forcing in Early Neolithic and Modern Southwest Germany

In: F. Riede, P. Sheets (eds), Going Forward by Looking Back: Archaeological Perspectives on Socio-ecological , Crisis, Response, and Collapse 333-366

2019

H. Whitehouse, P. François, P. Savage, [...] P. Turchin

Complex societies precede moralizing gods throughout world history

Nature 568, 226–229 (2019)

2018

T- E. Currie, P. Turchin, et al.

Reply to Tosh et al.: Quantitative analyses of cultural evolution require engagement with historical and archaeological research

PNAS 115(26) (2018) E5841-E5842

2017

P. Turchin et al.

Quantitative historical analysis uncovers a single dimension of complexity that structures global variation in human social organization

PNAS 115 (2) (2018) E144–E151

Talks

2021

Talk

Peter Turchin: “Cultural macroevolution—Understanding the rise of large-scale complex societies in human history”

Apr 22, 2021 | 3:00—5:30

Press

2023

PRESS

Es gibt auch gute Klima-Nachrichten

SZ, Sep 22, 2023

PRESS

Gaan we de klimaatcrisis overleven? Wetenschappers duiken in de geschiedenisboeken voor een antwoord (en het is waarschijnlijk niet wat je wilt horen)

SCIENTIAS, Sep 21, 2023

PRESS

Culture, political, economy decide society’s future in changing climate crises, researchers say

The Economic Times, Sep 19, 2023

PRESS

GESCHICHTE ZEIGT: Sozialer Zusammenhalt hilft bei multiplen Krisen

Kronen Zeitung, Sep 18, 2023

PRESS

China’s Qing Dynasty Collapsed For Reasons That Feel Eerily Familiar

Science Alert, Sep 8, 2023

PRESS

L’effondrement de la dernière dynastie chinoise des Qing, un avertissement pour le futur ?

GEO, Sep 6, 2023

PRESS

Explicación al colapso de la última dinastía imperial china

Infobae, Sep 4, 2023

PRESS

Warum die Qing-Dynastie unterging

ORF, Sep 5, 2023

PRESS

Así fue el colapso de la última dinastía imperial china

El Economista, Sep 4, 2023

PRESS

Qing Dynasty’s Collapse Driven By Three Things, And They Could Happen To Us

IFL Science, Sep 4, 2023