Second wave ahead! - CSH

Second wave ahead!


Jun 30, 2020

CSH president sees signs of a second coronavirus wave

 

In an interview with the Austrian Press Agency (APA), CSH founder Stefan Thurner warns against a spill-over of coronavirus infections to Austria from neighbouring countries. He sees first signs of a second wave in Austria too, for example in the regions around Linz and Vienna.

 

 

As can be seen on the “CSH Corona-Ampel” (Corona Traffic Light System), several districts in Austria recently have switched from “green” to “yellow.” This means that the number of positively tested cases per 10,000 inhabitants has increased to over one per 10,000 inhabitants compared to the previous two weeks.

 

Using the same system, the Hub’s visualization researchers Johannes Sorger and Wolfgang Knecht have now constructed a similar corona traffic light for the whole world. 

 

It is based on the daily data provided by Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore (USA).

 

The idea behind the international traffic light is to give people an easy-to-comprehend, intuitively usable guidance for travel decisions. “I would travel to countries colored green, i.e. countries with less than one new case per 10,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, without hesitation,” Stefan says. “I would not necessarily travel to countries colored yellow right now—and red is out of the question.” Stefan believes that the CSH Corona Traffic Light System does not match the current travel warnings issued by the authorities.

 

“The second wave is here”

 

Looking at the case reports over time, a “second hill” is already appearing in several countries, Stefan explained in the APA interview, even in some countries, which initially brought the epidemic well under control, like Israel. Israel had the numberst almost down to zero. Now they are rising again. A “massive second hill” is currently emerging in Croatia, one of Austria’s favorit holiday countries, even though the numbers are still quite low. Almost the entire Balkans show a similar picture, Stefan explained.

 

The situation is somewhat different in the USA or in Sweden, where a much less rigid containment course had been followed. “There, the second wave goes in or over the first wave,” he states. That’s because there have always been relatively many cases and the numbers haven’t gone down as much as, for instance, in Austria. These states now appear red in the traffic light system, because they have more than ten approved coronavirus cases per 10,000 inhabitants. Countries like the Republic of Moldova, Saudi Arabia and Oman, South Africa and a number of South American countries also appear in red.

 

For Europa, shifts towards yellow are expected

 

“There are also plenty of countries where a second wave is just around the corner,” Stefan points out, including Austria’s neighbors such as the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia or, to a lesser extent, Switzerland. Numbers are also on the rise in containment “model countries” such as Iceland or New Zealand. For Europe, Stefan predicts “almost certainly a shift towards yellow” (between one and ten cases per 10,000 inhabitants) in the coming days.

 

In Austria, “the lockdown was simply well timed,” he adds. “But this does not mean that Austria is immune to an increase in the number of sick people, especially as the holiday season is about to start.”

 

 


Press

I predicted 2020 would be a mess for the U.S. Could that help prevent a second civil war?


The Globe and Mail, Jul 3, 2020

Press

Coronavirus: Ampelsystem für regionales Risiko kommt


ORF, Jul 4, 2020

Press

All good? Corona traffic lights now also for Austria


Vaaju, Jul 4, 2020

Press

Coronavirus: cambió la vida del mundo en solo seis meses [Spanish]


Everardoherrera, Jul 5, 2020

News

Jun 30, 2020

Second wave ahead!

News

Jun 29, 2020

New theory explains political polarization

News

Jun 23, 2020

Corona | How far we move [June]

News

Jun 17, 2020

Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen at the Hub

Publication

C. Tsallis, U. Tirnakli

Predicting COVID-19 peaks around the world

Front. Phys. 8 (2020) 217

Publication

C. Diem, A. Pichler, S. Thurner

What is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks?

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Vol. 116 July (2020) 103900

Publication

O. Har-Shemesh, R. Quax, J. S. Lansing, P. M.A. Sloot

Questionnaire data analysis using information geometry

Sci Rep 10 (2020) 8633

Publication

F. Tria, I. Crimaldi, G. Aletti, V. D. P. Servedio

Taylor’s Law in Innovation Processes

Entropy 22(5) (2020) 573

Press

I predicted 2020 would be a mess for the U.S. Could that help prevent a second civil war?


The Globe and Mail, Jul 3, 2020

Press

Coronavirus: Ampelsystem für regionales Risiko kommt


ORF, Jul 4, 2020

Press

All good? Corona traffic lights now also for Austria


Vaaju, Jul 4, 2020

Press

Coronavirus: cambió la vida del mundo en solo seis meses [Spanish]


Everardoherrera, Jul 5, 2020

News

Jun 30, 2020

Second wave ahead!

News

Jun 29, 2020

New theory explains political polarization

News

Jun 23, 2020

Corona | How far we move [June]

News

Jun 17, 2020

Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen at the Hub

Publication

C. Tsallis, U. Tirnakli

Predicting COVID-19 peaks around the world

Front. Phys. 8 (2020) 217

Publication

C. Diem, A. Pichler, S. Thurner

What is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks?

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Vol. 116 July (2020) 103900

Publication

O. Har-Shemesh, R. Quax, J. S. Lansing, P. M.A. Sloot

Questionnaire data analysis using information geometry

Sci Rep 10 (2020) 8633

Publication

F. Tria, I. Crimaldi, G. Aletti, V. D. P. Servedio

Taylor’s Law in Innovation Processes

Entropy 22(5) (2020) 573

News

Jun 30, 2020

Second wave ahead!

News

Jun 29, 2020

New theory explains political polarization

News

Jun 23, 2020

Corona | How far we move [June]

News

Jun 17, 2020

Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen at the Hub

News

Jun 16, 2020

How robust are the Austrian supply chains?

News

Jun 10, 2020

Our 1st Online Workshop—a great success!

News

May 15, 2020

Corona | How measures work [May]

News

May 7, 2020

Where did your last swallow’s nest come from?

News

Apr 30, 2020

Corona | How measures work [April]

News

Apr 29, 2020

Corona-Ampel | Einschätzung der Lage im Bezirk

News

Apr 29, 2020

International recognition for the CSH Covid-19 Control Strategies List [DE | EN]

News

Apr 24, 2020

CSH fordert besseren Datenzugang

Press

I predicted 2020 would be a mess for the U.S. Could that help prevent a second civil war?


The Globe and Mail, Jul 3, 2020

Press

Coronavirus: Ampelsystem für regionales Risiko kommt


ORF, Jul 4, 2020

Press

All good? Corona traffic lights now also for Austria


Vaaju, Jul 4, 2020

Press

Coronavirus: cambió la vida del mundo en solo seis meses [Spanish]


Everardoherrera, Jul 5, 2020

Press

El virus que nadie vio venir – Noticias España


La Vanguardia , Jul 5, 2020

Press

Diese neuen Corona-Regeln gelten ab 1. Juli 2020


derbrutkasten, Jul 1, 2020

Press

Fachleute mahnen zu Abstand und Maske


ORF, Jun 30, 2020

Press

Forscher warnen vor zweiter Corona-Welle


Puls 24 News, Jun 30, 2020

Press

Corona-Krise: Warnung vor weiterer Infektionswelle


ATV Aktuell, Jun 30, 2020

Press

Wiener Forscher sehen Anzeichen für zweite Welle


ORF 2, Jun 30, 2020

Press

Auch in Wien und Linz: Forscher orten Hinweise auf zweite Corona-Welle nahe Österreich


Kleine Zeitung, Jun 30, 2020

Press

Schwappt zweite Welle bald auf Österreich über?


Kronen Zeitung (TV), Jun 30, 2020

Publication

C. Tsallis, U. Tirnakli

Predicting COVID-19 peaks around the world

Front. Phys. 8 (2020) 217

Publication

C. Diem, A. Pichler, S. Thurner

What is the minimal systemic risk in financial exposure networks?

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Vol. 116 July (2020) 103900

Publication

O. Har-Shemesh, R. Quax, J. S. Lansing, P. M.A. Sloot

Questionnaire data analysis using information geometry

Sci Rep 10 (2020) 8633

Publication

F. Tria, I. Crimaldi, G. Aletti, V. D. P. Servedio

Taylor’s Law in Innovation Processes

Entropy 22(5) (2020) 573

Publication

A. Desvars-Larrive, E. Dervic, N. Haug, et al.

A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to COVID-19

medRxiv (2020)

Publication

R. Costas, P. Mongeon, M. R. Ferreira, J. van Honk, T. Franssen

Large-scale identification and characterization of scholars on Twitter

Quantitative Science Studies (2020) 1-21

Publication

P. Jizba, J. Korbel

When Shannon and Khinchin meet Shore and Johnson: Equivalence of information theory and statistical inference axiomatics

Phys. Rev. E 101 (2020) 042126

Publication

R. Entezari, O. Saukh

Class-dependent Compression of Deep Neural Networks

In Proc. of the International Workshop on Machine Learning on Edge in Sensor Systems (Sensys-ML @ CPS-IoT Week), 2020 (accepted)

Publication

F. Schweitzer, T. Krivachy, D. Garcia

An Agent-Based Model of Opinion Polarization Driven by Emotions

Complexity (2020) 5282035

Publication

S. Schweighofer, F. Schweitzer, D. Garcia

A Weighted Balance Model of Opinion Hyperpolarization

Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 23(3) (2020) 5

Publication

A. Pluchino, ..., V. Latora

A Novel Methodology for Epidemic Risk Assessment: the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

[submitted]

Publication

S. Thurner, W. Liu, P. Klimek, S.A. Cheong

The role of mainstreamness and interdisciplinarity for the relevance of scientific papers

PLOS ONE 15 (4) (2020) e0230325