The anatomy of the current antibiotic shortage


Mar 27, 2023

Global supply shortages of antibiotics are currently on the rise. A study by the newly founded Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII) in collaboration with the Complexity Science Hub now deciphers the causes of the shortage: First and foremost, the increasing concentration of production in two countries – China and India. Investing in a well-developed data infrastructure can help remedy the situation.

In the interactive visualization, created by Liuhuaying Yang of the Complexity Science Hub, you can explore the connections and interdependencies for yourself. This video shows how it works.

“Our data shows a clear trend of increasing concentration of production on a few countries, namely China and India,” explains Peter Klimek of the Complexity Science Hub and the Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII). A trend that accelerated even further during the pandemic.

 

These dependencies are not apparent in direct imports but become clear as one traces the value chain further back. Intermediaries and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are more concentrated than unpackaged and packaged products. 76% of intermediaries manufacturing sites and 59% of API producers are located in China and India. “If a shortage occurs here, potential substitute products are also more likely to be affected by shortages,” Klimek said. In line with this observation, the estimated number of shortages that could be addressed through substitution has halved from 2018 to 2020.

PANDEMIC LOWERED DEMAND FOR ANTIBIOTICS

The measures taken to combat the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic also reduced the circulation of other pathogens. As a result, both demand and consumption of antibiotics in the general population and in hospitals fell dramatically – by about 20% – during the pandemic. In 2022, when many countries stopped taking measures to contain SARS-CoV-2, antibiotic consumption increased accordingly. Combined with geographically concentrated production systems, shortages occurred in large parts of the world.

RELOCATE PRODUCTION?

One of the few European production facilities for antibiotics is located in Kundl, Austria. Despite this (according to the Austrian Federal Office for Safety in Health Care, as of March 9, 2023), several products are on the list of antibiotics not available in Austria. “Our data show that Austria is most closely linked to Spain in terms of supply chains,” Klimek said. However, due to indirect dependencies, China is right behind it in second place, he added.

WHAT TO DO?

To better quantify and predict drug shortages in the future, both short-term and long-term measures are needed. “One of the most important things will be to invest in data, planning and forecasting infrastructure to measure, understand and forecast the demand for antibiotics,” Klimek explains. The focus should be on those drugs for which substitutes are also lacking.

 

Furthermore, greater emphasis should be placed on security of supply and appropriate measures taken, he adds. After all, a well-designed market should internalize the risk of disruption. “Today’s antibiotics market structures are highly internationalised. This ensures low prices, which is desirable. Unfortunately, security of supply has repeatedly proved to be a weak point. Consideration should be given to a market design in which health policy does not need to intervene and which still guarantees security of supply”, says co-author Klaus Friesenbichler (ASCII and WIFO). Providing market incentives for the development of new antibiotics will be particularly important as resistance to existing products increases. A failure to develop new and improved antibiotics therefore poses a risk to society.


Publication

V.D.P. Servedio, M. R. Ferreira, N. Reisz, R. Costas, S. Thurner

Scale-free growth in regional scientific capacity building explains long-term scientific dominance

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 167 (2023) 113020

Press

End Times by Peter Turchin review – can we predict the collapse of societies?


The Guardian, May 28, 2023

Press

Obesity increases the chances of developing mental disorders for all age groups


News Medical, May 30, 2023

Event

CSH Talk by François Lafond "Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?"


Jun 07, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Publication

A. Nerpel, et al.

SARS-ANI: a global open access dataset of reported SARS-CoV-2 events in animals

Scientific Data 9 (438) (2022)

Press

Wie Medikamente durch die Welt reisen


NEWS, May 31, 2023

Event

CSH Talk by Thomas Choi "Supply Networks: Dyads, Triads, Tetrads, and Beyond"


Jun 06, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

People

May 30, 2023

Meet Sachin Rawat

Research News

May 30, 2023

Obesity increases risk of mental disorders throughout life

News

May 31, 2023

Forensic analysis shows signs of election fraud in Turkey

Publication

C. Deischinger, E. Dervic, S. Nopp, M. Kaleta, P. Klimek, A. Kautzky-Willer

Diabetes mellitus is associated with a higher relative risk for venous thromboembolism in females than in males

Diabetes Res Clin Pract. (2022) 36471550

News

May 31, 2023

Forensic analysis shows signs of election fraud in Turkey

People

May 30, 2023

Meet Sachin Rawat

Research News

May 30, 2023

Obesity increases risk of mental disorders throughout life

News

May 25, 2023

Quotas alone will not solve the problem

Spotlight

May 17, 2023

Complexity Research for Digital Humanism

People

May 12, 2023

Peter Turchin introduces his new book

Research News

May 2, 2023

Scientists create high-resolution poverty maps using big data

News

Apr 26, 2023

BEYOND COLLECTIVE STUPIDITY

Spotlight

Apr 21, 2023

How does a region become a center for innovation?

Spotlight

Apr 14, 2023

Are cars our kings?

Press

End Times by Peter Turchin review – can we predict the collapse of societies?


The Guardian, May 28, 2023

Press

Obesity increases the chances of developing mental disorders for all age groups


News Medical, May 30, 2023

Press

Wie Medikamente durch die Welt reisen


NEWS, May 31, 2023

Press

Kritik an EU-Chatkontrolle


Ö1 | Digital.leben, May 11, 2023

Press

Treibjagd im Darknet: Neue Technologien für Cyber-Ermittler


Salzburger Nachrichten, May 16, 2023

Press

„Die Älteren halten zu Erdogan, die jüngere Generation hat andere Sorgen“


Cicero, May 9, 2023

Press

Stablecoin Destabilization - why should we care?


Forbes, Apr 27, 2023

Press

„Wir sind nicht so einfach zu manipulieren“ [feat. Hannah Metzler]


Kurier, Apr 29, 2023

Press

Die manchmal fatale Lust, alles selbst zu recherchieren [feat. Mirta Galesic & Henrik Olsson]


Die Presse, Apr 14, 2023

Press

La scienza ha creato una nuova classificazione delle aperture degli scacchi [ital | feat. Vito Servedio & Giordano De Marzo]


WIRED, Apr 10, 2023

Publication

R. Prieto-Curiel, J. E. Patino, B. Anderson

Scaling of the morphology of African cities

PNAS 120 (9) (2023) e2214254120

Publication

A. Di Natale, D. Garcia

LEXpander: applying colexification networks to automated lexicon expansion

Behaviour Research Methods (2023)

Publication

V.D.P. Servedio, M. R. Ferreira, N. Reisz, R. Costas, S. Thurner

Scale-free growth in regional scientific capacity building explains long-term scientific dominance

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 167 (2023) 113020

Publication

C. Deischinger, E. Dervic, S. Nopp, M. Kaleta, P. Klimek, A. Kautzky-Willer

Diabetes mellitus is associated with a higher relative risk for venous thromboembolism in females than in males

Diabetes Res Clin Pract. (2022) 36471550

Publication

A. Nerpel, et al.

SARS-ANI: a global open access dataset of reported SARS-CoV-2 events in animals

Scientific Data 9 (438) (2022)

Publication

E. D. Lee, X. Chen, B. C. Daniels

Discovering sparse control strategies in neural activity

PLoS Computational Biology (May 27) (2022)

Publication

H. Kong, S. Martin-Gutierrez, F. Karimi

Influence of the first-mover advantage on the gender disparities in physics citations

Communications Physics 5 (243) (2022)

Publication

T.M. Pham, J. Korbel, R. Hanel, S. Thurner

Empirical social triad statistics can be explained with dyadic homophylic interactions

PNAS 119 (2022) e2121103119

Publication

G. De Marzo, V.D.P. Servedio

Quantifying the complexity and similarity of chess openings using online chess community data

Scientific Reports 13 (2023) 5327

Publication

D. R. Lo Sardo, S. Thurner, et al.

Systematic population-wide ecological analysis of regional variability in disease prevalence

Heliyon 9(4) (2023) e15377

Publication

J. Wachs

Digital traces of brain drain: developers during the Russian invasion of Ukraine

EPJ Data Science 12 (2023) 14

Publication

D. Diodato, R. Hausmann, F. Neffke

The impact of return migration on employment and wages in Mexican cities

Journal of Urban Economics 135 (2023) 103557

Event

CSH Talk by Thomas Choi "Supply Networks: Dyads, Triads, Tetrads, and Beyond"


Jun 06, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Workshop: "Firm-level supply network data for policy making"


Jun 05, 2023 | 8:00Jun 06, 2023 | 17:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Event

CSH Talk by François Lafond "Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?"


Jun 07, 2023 | 15:0016:00

Complexity Science Hub Vienna