CSH scientists list actions to mitigate the negative impact of a gas supply disruption
In a new Policy Brief, the CSH team estimates the effects of a complete stoppage of gas supplies by Russia on Austria’s economy under two different scenarios: one in which the European Union draws a joint action to coordinate gas supply policies and another in which Austria tries to secure additional gas independently.
“In the EU-cooperation scenario, losses for the Austrian economy are noticeable, but manageable. Overall economic impacts result in a decrease of gross output of 1.9 percent, which translates to 1.11 billion euros per month,” states the document.
“In the uncoordinated scenario, economic impacts are more severe, resulting in a 9.1 percent reduction of the Austrian gross output. This amounts to a loss of about 5.31 billion euros per month.”
As part of their analysis, the scientists consider possible corrective measures to reduce the immediate shortfall in Russian gas supply, such as additional imports, storage extraction, and fuel switching.
The CSH team points out that the economic impact of a complete halt of gas deliveries by Russia to Austria, who is among the largest importers of Russian gas in the EU, strongly depends on the mitigation measures that will be put in place. They emphasize the need of a coordinated crisis management strategy across the EU for gas supply policies.
“In case of successful coordination on the EU level, Austria might experience only small adverse economic impacts. Ensuring alternative sources of gas supply, as well as intelligent storage management, will prove key for counteracting a sudden embargo of Russian gas”, according to the brief.
At the same time, the scientists stress the importance of the population’s participation in gas saving actions. People can help by taking simple measures like reducing the room temperature by 1º C during the winter months or reducing electricity usage.
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