NO CRITICAL MASS OF SCIENTISTS: TRY TO BE A PIONEER


Dec 28, 2022

To find out how many scientists a region needs to become a leader in a discipline, researchers at Complexity Science Hub tracked millions of scientists moving across the globe. Their result: there is no critical mass of scientists, but you have to be a pioneer. Regions can catch up later, but this costs a lot.

 

 

If you want to open a restaurant, you first have to invest – in waiters, chefs, facilities, and equipment – to be profitable later on. “Political decision-makers and investors of a region face a similar situation. If they decide to invest in a new field of research, they have to become leaders at a certain point to be profitable,” CSH researcher Vito D. P. Servedio explains. 

 

RICH GET RICHER

 

Therefore, they need financial resources and scientists. “Early investment in emerging areas of research is a key driver of scientific dominance,” he continues. Once the pioneer has established an area or technology, researchers are also more likely to move into this new, stimulating environment. This “get-rich-richer” phenomenon underlies the development of scientific strength in a region. And scientists’ mobility drives the development of scientific disciplines.

 

The question is, then, how many scientists does a region need to hire so that other scientists find its environment attractive and join its institutions?

 

NO CRITICAL MASS OF SCIENTISTS

 

The researchers found no evidence for the existence of a minimum number of researchers to hire. Or in technical terms: there is no critical mass of scientists to start and carry on a new research field successfully. Here, the scientists focused on three scientific areas: semiconductors, embryonic stem cells (ESC) and internet research. 

 

“In a way, this contradicts the generally held belief that you need a minimum number or critical mass of researchers to make a field successful. In our study, it becomes apparent that this is not the case,” Stefan Thurner from CSH states.

 

 

New study at Complexity Science Hub: Try to be a pioneer © Pixabay

BE A PIONEER

 

In fact, regions seem to be successful when they manage to jump early on a train and become pioneers in a field. “We also find, as common sense suggests, that regions moving early into new technologies tend to dominate the corresponding scientific fields in the future,” Servedio explains. 

 

CHINA: EXPENSIVE RACE TO CATCH UP

 

If a region was not a pioneer, but still wants to achieve leadership in a given area of research it has to make extraordinary efforts to catch up. “Strategic interventions must be sustained over decades to compete for a leading position in a field, as is evident, for example, in Chinese semiconductor science, where the catch up-process began in the late 1970s and has led to a dominant role today,” Servedio says. 

 

A model specially developed by the researchers can explain the development pattern of China – how they take over specific research areas and grow the number of scientists publishing in those fields. “After all, China has some of the fastest-growing institutions worldwide. With our model, you can clearly see that China is closing the gap with the US, potentially taking on huge costs, but also showing their ability to effectively engage with high impact research. While first movers may have an advantage in some contexts, it is not necessarily impossible for late-comers to catch up or even surpass first movers in a scientific field.” CSH researcher Márcia R. Ferreira says.

 

THREE RESEARCH FIELDS AND MILLIONS OF DATA

 

With the help of the Dimensions database, the researchers at CSH could track scientists moving across regions of the world (they derived these movements from the scientists’ affiliations) in three fields – namely semiconductors, embryonic stem cells (ESC) and internet research. “In this way, we analyzed data spanning several decades with information on millions of publications, 20 million researchers and more than 98,000 research institutions worldwide,” Servedio states. 

 

In the field of semiconductor research, they tracked 5,062,639 articles and 2,011,170 researchers in 1,633 regions worldwide between 1941 and 2019; in stem cell research, they tracked 1,083,100 articles and 752,575 researchers in 1,161 regions worldwide over the same period; and in the field of internet research, they tracked 246,953 articles and 109,098 researchers in 1,032 regions worldwide between 1956 and 2019.

 

“What our results clearly show is if regions want to become a leader in a field, they must try to get involved early on. It is possible to catch up, but this comes at tremendous costs,” Thurner and Servedio state. “Nonetheless, our model of scientific capacity building is a simplification. There are other factors contributing to the success of a field that we have not yet been able to explore here and which will be the subject of future analysis,” Ferreira states.

 

 


Press

Wissenschaft kritisiert fehlenden Datenzugang


ORF, Dec 4, 2023

Publication

A. Nerpel, A. Käsbohrer, C. Walzer, A. Desvars-Larrive

Data on SARS-CoV-2 events in animals: Mind the gap!

One Health 17 (2023) 100653 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100653

Research News

Nov 28, 2023

Proposals for an Efficient and Effective Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence in Europe

Publication

P. Klimek, A. Aykac, S. Thurner

Forensic analysis of the Turkey 2023 presidential election reveals extreme vote swings in remote areas

PLoS ONE 18(11) (2023) e0293239

Publication

M. Pangallo, A. Aleta, et al.

The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic

Nature Human Behaviour (2023) DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01747-x

Research News

Nov 27, 2023

India's Rice Export Restrictions Echo in West Asia and Africa

Press

Klima und Geschichte


Die Presse, Nov 4, 2023

Press

Forscher sagt: „2024 wird das System in den USA möglicherweise zusammenbrechen“


Die Presse, Nov 14, 2023

Spotlight

Nov 30, 2023

From Inequality to Instability

Spotlight

Nov 30, 2023

From Inequality to Instability

Research News

Nov 28, 2023

Proposals for an Efficient and Effective Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence in Europe

Research News

Nov 27, 2023

India's Rice Export Restrictions Echo in West Asia and Africa

Research News

Nov 23, 2023

Study Identifies Numerous Connections in Cybercrime Cases

Press

Nov 17, 2023

Invitation to media chat by Supply Chain Intelligence Institute Austria (ASCII)

Research News

Nov 15, 2023

Data Gap in SARS-CoV-2 Cases in Animals

News

Nov 14, 2023

FTX Collapse: New Method for Assessing the Solvency of Cryptocurrency Exchanges

People

Nov 10, 2023

Double Honors for CSH Researchers

News

Nov 13, 2023

New scientific methods for analyzing criminal careers

People

Nov 6, 2023

A letter to my dear friend Constantino

News

Oct 19, 2023

It's high time for alliances to ensure supply chain security

News

Oct 17, 2023

Experts discuss sustainable phosphorus use and global food security

Press

Wissenschaft kritisiert fehlenden Datenzugang


ORF, Dec 4, 2023

Press

Forscher sagt: „2024 wird das System in den USA möglicherweise zusammenbrechen“


Die Presse, Nov 14, 2023

Press

Klima und Geschichte


Die Presse, Nov 4, 2023

Press

Daten mit Gewicht: Analysen von Lieferketten zeigen auch Steuerlücken


Die Presse, Oct 20, 2023

Press

Krypto-Forscher über DeFi: “Würde von De-facto-Centralized-Finance sprechen”


brutkasten, Oct 27, 2023

Press

Scientists say Western sanctions against China ‘toothless’ without better supply chain data


South China Morning Post, Oct 20, 2023

Press

Climate change has toppled some civilizations but not others. Why?


Grist, Oct 16, 2023

Press

scobel - Emergenz: Das verborgene Prinzip des Lebens


3sat, Oct 12, 2023

Press

Wenn die Kryptofalle zuschnappt


Kurier, Oct 17, 2023

Press

Chinas E-Autos kommen, und Europa darf nicht naiv sein


Der Standard, Oct 9, 2023

Press

GOP candidates' proposals to attack drug cartels is the wrong approach, Mexican researchers say


NBC News, Oct 6, 2023

Publication

P. Klimek, A. Aykac, S. Thurner

Forensic analysis of the Turkey 2023 presidential election reveals extreme vote swings in remote areas

PLoS ONE 18(11) (2023) e0293239

Publication

M. Pangallo, A. Aleta, et al.

The unequal effects of the health-economy tradeoff during the COVID-19 pandemic

Nature Human Behaviour (2023) DOI: 10.1038/s41562-023-01747-x

Publication

A. Nerpel, A. Käsbohrer, C. Walzer, A. Desvars-Larrive

Data on SARS-CoV-2 events in animals: Mind the gap!

One Health 17 (2023) 100653 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100653

Publication

G. Heiler, T. Pham, J. Korbel, J. Wachs, S. Thurner

A large-scale empirical investigation of specialization in criminal career

Scientific Reports 13 (2023) 17160

Publication

A. Pichler, C. Diem, et al.

Building an alliance to map global supply networks: New firm-level data can inform policy-making

Science 382(6668) (2023) 270-272.

Publication

R. Prieto-Curiel, G. M. Capedelli, A. Hope

Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico

Science 381(6664) (2023) 1312-1316

Publication

B. Méro, A. Borsos, et al.

A High-Resolution, Data-Driven Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2023) 104738

Publication

S. Juhász, G. Pintér, et al.

Amenity complexity and urban locations of socio-economic mixing

EPJ Data Science 12 (2023) 34

Publication

R. Hanel, S. Thurner

Equivalence of information production and generalised entropies in complex processes

PLOS ONE 18(9) (2023) e0290695

Publication

K. Frenken, F. Neffke, A. van Dam

Capabilities, institutions and regional economic development: a proposed synthesis

Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society (2023) rsad021

Publication

G. Orlandi, D. Hoyer, et al.

Structural-demographic analysis of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1912) collapse in China

PLoS ONE 18(8) (2023) e0289748

Publication

N. Kushwaha, E.D. Lee

Discovering the mesoscale for chains of conflict

PNAS Nexus 2(7) (2023) pgad228